08 November 2009

H1N1 Nightmare Scenario Now Possible

The following report from Dr Henry Niman of Recombinomics is the most up to date information on the evolution of the H1N1 Pandemic that is sweeping the world.

Now comes this: H1N1 has jumped multiple species barriers!

Why is that big news- big scarey news? Because normally, viruses that cause the flu are species specific. They do not infect many different types of animals along with humans. They usually stay put within one species.

That is good because if they jump into another species, then all of the viruses normally found in that other speices have a chance to mix or recombine into another virus that is altogether new. A new virus that now shares some or all of the characteristics of all of the viruses involved in the mix.

My nightmare scenario has always been:

What would happen if you mixed H1N1 with H5N1?

H5N1 is the bird flu and is endemic among all birds on this planet. This means that practically 100% of all birds carry this virus, which does not make them sick. They just carry it.

But!-occasionally the H5N1 will jump into a human host and cause a severe infection that is about 60% fatal! Fortunately, the H5N1 in a human is not easily transmitted to another human, so it does not spread to cause an epidemic of H5N1. Whew!

Wait- not so fast. What would happen if you got H5N1 and H1N1 present at the same time in either a bird or human being? Would those two viruses mix?

And what would the resulting mixed virus be like?

Here's the nightmare scenario:

The new hybrid mixed virus could have the high kill rate of H5N1 and the easy transmisibility from human to human of H1N1.

Now you have a killer virus on the loose all over the planet that in all likelihood would out do the 1918 'Spanish Flu'.

Remember, the 1918 flu killed 100 million world-wide with a mortality rate of only 2%. How many would die if you had a virus with a mortality rate of 60%? In simple terms, a kill rate that is 30 times higher would produce 30 times the deaths.

The simple math is: 100 million X 30 = 3 billion dead people!

Now to be sure- this has not happened yet and may never happen.

This is theoretical and speculative.

But do you see why I call it the nightmare scenario?

Let's now leave the theoretical and the speculative and take a look at the real world evwents unfolding right now in the Ukraine.

We don't know much yet- but -

according to preliminary reports from the Health Ministry there -

a mutated H1N1 virus or an entirely new virus is speading at an exponential rate- doubling daily- with a mortality rate that is 10 times that of the regular H1N1 in the United States!

This is shocking terrifying news.

We must pray that this will all fizzle out and not spread widely. If this goes global, then we have according to the simple math- 1 billion possible deaths!

So, get prepared and stay prepared. We have a long bumpy road ahead. May Allah bless us all to make it through the storm.

H1N1 Jumps to Pets Raise Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary 23:23November 7, 2009

As human infections become increasingly widespread, transmission of the virus from humans to swine is likely to occur with greater frequency.In addition, pandemic H1N1 infections have been reported in turkeys in Chile and Canada and in a few pet animals in the USA. Again, these infections were isolated events and pose no special risks to human health.The above comments from the WHO update on H1N1 in farmed animals suggests the infections in turkeys and pets pose no special risks to human health, However, this statement would be true only in the narrowest sense. Pandemic H1N1 is widespread in humans and the vast majority of infections of humans are from virus in other humans. However, the ability of this virus to jump species increases viral interactions that can result in the exchange of genetic information via recombination and reassortment.Transmission to swine has been reported at an increasing frequency. Yesterday a jump to swine in Taiwan was reported and today a jump to swine in Hong Kong was reported. Multiple examples in North and South America, as well as Europe, Asia, and Australia have been reported previously, and as the level of H1N1 in humans increases, the frequency of such jumps will likely increase.However, the pandemic H1N1 is a swine virus, so there have been prior opportunities to acquire genetic information from viruses that co-infect swine. The report of jumps to turkeys however, increased concern that the virus was quite promiscuous and could jump to multiple species.The concerns were increased by two reports of jumps to pet ferrets. Last year a virus from the first reported natural infection in ferrets was found to be an H1N1 classical swine virus. Therefore, a jump of swine H1N1 to pet ferrets was not unexpected. However, these jumps were accompanied by assurances about jumps in other pets, since H1N1 had not been previously reported in cats or dogs. However, the ability of the virus to jump to other mammals was increased by the reports of jumps to avian species , such as the turkeys described above.Moreover, the pandemic H1N1 had a high attack rate. The explosion of cases in the fall was tightly linked to school openings. The virus would quickly spread in schools leading to double digit absenteeism and associated infections of teachers and staff. In schools that had absences in the range of 20-30% for periods of 1-2 weeks attack rates approaching 100%. This high attack rate in schools has also been reported in anecdotal reports of family attack rates of 100%.The high attack rates are facilitate by multiple exposures within a families residence. However, this frequent exposure would also apply to family pets that were kept indoors.The concerns were supported by the recent report of H1N1 in a pet cat. This was the first reported case because of the availability of testing and not due to a unique association / exposures. Concerns that such transfers might be common were supported by anecdotal reports of cats and dogs developing flu-like symptoms following infection in owners and family members. These anecdotal reports suggest that testing of these symptomatic pets will identify a number of such jumps, which raises concerns of interactions with other animal virus.These interactions can lead to rapid evolution, and the proximity and transmissibility of pandemic H1N1 will lead to frequent transmission to humans.Extended surveys of sequences from pet isolates should be a top priority

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