26 April 2010

Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths Spike

Don't lower your guard. It ain't over yet.
While the 'phony swine flu pandemic' is out of the news, something else is taking place in America. Influenza and pneumonia are nearly at epidemic levels, but not being reported in the media.
Keep all safe guards to your health in place - especially Vitamin D supplementation. It is not clear which way things will develop.
Look for yourself at the following graph and article. The danger is real.

US Pneumonia & Influenza Deaths Spike To Epidemic Threshold

Recombinomics Commentary 21:37
April 20, 2010

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at the epidemic threshold. No states reported widespread or regional influenza activity. Four states reported local influenza activity.

The above comments from the CDC week 15 report on influenza in the United States once again highlights the discordance between reported/confirmed pH1N1 cases and Pneumonia and Influenza death rate reported in 122 cities in the United States. The graph of P&I deaths for the past three years clearly shows a change beginning about 11 months ago, following pH1N1 confirmation in the United States. Those cases created a new peak in pediatric deaths and pushed the P&I rate above baseline. It has been above baseline ever since, which is not seen in previous years.

Normally, the P&I rate is at or below baseline for most of the season, and it moves above baseline at the peak of seasonal flu in February or March. In contrast, the P&I rate for the past 11 months has been above baseline for almost every week. Occasionally it briefly falls below baseline, but then spikes higher, as it did for week 15, when it rose to the epidemic threshold, 7.6%. Week 15 is dramatic because the level of reported pH1N1 is so low. In week 15 no state is reported widespread or regional activity. Only four are reporting local activity, and the rest are reporting sporadic or no activity (the week 15 report is displaying the week 14 map).

These data once again raise concerns that fatal pH1N1 pneumonia cases are not being reported/confirmed. P&I deaths do not require lab confirmation, so fatal pneumonia cases which are not tested or test negative for pH1N1 are still reported by the 122 cities.

Testing for pH1N1 is abysmal. Media and journal reports have described case after case which was pH1N1 confirmed at autopsy. These cases repeatedly tested negative for the rapid test as well as PCR because the pH1N1 had already been cleared from the upper respiratory tract and was growing exclusively in the lower respiratory tract (so throat or nasopharyngeal swabs are negative).

Countries worldwide have reported an increase in D225G/D225N cases, which are almost exclusively found in fatal or severe cases. D225G is frequently found at higher levels in the lower respiratory tract, leading to false negatives when the upper respiratory tract is tested.

The CDC has failed to explain the discrepancy. In January, media reports quoted the agency as speculating that the spike in deaths then were due to pneumonia caused by something other than pH1N1. However, the movement of the P&I above baseline began shortly after pH1N1 was confirmed in the spring of 2009 and reflects deaths that are markedly higher than the estimated influenza deaths of 36,000, which is based on the P&I data.

Moreover, the number of tested samples has been minimal. Only 23 samples were tested for low reactor status in the past week, and the one positive raised the total to 6, which appears to be limited to detection of changes at position 159. The CDC no longer reports changes at position 158 as low reactors.

Thus, not only has the CDC failed to explain the high P&I levels and lower sensitivity for detection of low reactors, they have not addressed the gap between their estimate of 12,000 pH1N1 deaths, and the 36,000 average for seasonal flu, since pH1N1 deaths are clearly much higher than an average season based on excessive P&I deaths, which is the criteria for seasonal flu death estimates.

The clear explanation for the cause of the excessive P&I deaths is long overdue.

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